Emmy Predictions

For the first time in a while I'm not all that invested in tonight's Emmy awards. Too many of the shows are ones I either haven't caught up on yet, or just don't watch at all. And as it's the third year in a row that  Modern Family (a show I attempted, but after three episodes of stereotypes decided I couldn't stand it) dominating all the comedy categories, it's less exciting. Don't get me wrong, I will be watching. And putting all my efforts into rooting for anyone who isn't a cast or crew member of Modern Family.

So here are my hopes and predictions for the night. Like I said, I'm not...super invested, so I'm only doing certain categories.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: COMEDY

After watching the last two telecasts, I'm sensing a pattern with regards to the Modern Family cast, and that is that we're just going to be rotating through them. While we still have two more of the men to go through, both ladies have gotten their trophies. Could we be seeing a repeat for either of them? It's possible, but with Kristin Wiig and Kathryn Joosten in the mix, I think maybe not so much. I have no real hopes for this category, seeing as The Big Bang Theory is the only show represented I consistently watch and Mayim Bialik's Amy Farrah Fowler is my least favorite character on the show. But my slightly cynical prediction is that, seeing as both the Modern Family ladies have already been recognized, Kathryn Joosten is going to get the posthumous award for Desperate Housewives.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: COMEDY

This category makes me crazy. Are the Modern Family guys really better than every other show out there? Better than the hilarious men of Parks and Rec, of Community, or of Raising Hope? I don't think so. And the fact that all of them continually get nominated leaves no room for anyone else with equal talent and keeps the race uninteresting. So while I think it's going to be Ed O'Neill's year (though if we have to go with another Modern Family win, I'd prefer Jesse Tyler Ferguson based solely on his guest judging stint on So You Think You Can Dance), I want it to be Max Greenfield for the upset so badly. I love Schmidt. He's the best part of New Girl, his character is so rich where it could have easily been a one-note douche. I will take Bill Hader, as he's the greatest SNL player in a long time (seriously I would watch and hour long Stefon skit if I could), but I'll be pulling for Greenfield.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: DRAMA

I am slightly more invested in this category, but not much I guess. I don't see Downton Abbey being much of a threat. The second season wasn't loved nearly as much as the first, and some people are a little hesitant about it being in the drama series at all rather than miniseries. I think either Anna Gunn or Christina Hendricks has the most chance (Gunn riding out a high point for Breaking Bad and Hendricks, despite a weak season, had a controversial storyline involving prostitution and climbing the corporate ladder). If I had my druthers, however, the win would go to the constantly stellar Christine Baranski.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: DRAMA

I loved that Peter Dinklage took home the win in this category last year. I don't see it being a repeat, however. Like Downton Abbey, Game of Thrones wasn't nearly as loved its second season, and no other actors have been recognized as nominees. I think the real fight comes down to the Breaking Bad men. While Aaron Paul has brought home the win in the past, I have no doubt this season is going to go to Giancarlo Esposito. His exit was the stuff of legend and I don't even watch Breaking Bad (a story for another time).

BEST ACTRESS: COMEDY
I have yet to understand how Nurse Jackie is considered a comedy, but I guess that's neither here no there. I don't imagine we'll be seeing a repeat of Melissa McCarthy's win. Tina Fey is nominated every year, but 30 Rock is on its way out and is losing momentum on the way. I don't think Veep has had enough viewers or interest to really garner a win for Julia Louis-Dreyfus, despite her comedy legacy. Zoey Deschanel and Lena Dunham are both newcomers, but both shows were well received. Girls won a lot of praise from critics, and had its share of controversy to keep its name in print, and New Girl was a commercial success. Of the two, I see Dunham taking home the win over Deschanel (her brand of cute and quirky is far from everyone's cup of tea), but I'm not counting out Amy Poehler. Her Leslie Knope is one of the best female leads in comedy. She's smart and driven, loving and passionate. She's crazy and dorky and just one of the greatest characters.

BEST ACTOR: COMEDY
This one feels tricky. Like Tina Fey, I think Alec Baldwin's time is over. Jon Cryer's, while a mainstay nominee for sometime, it's been in Supporting Actor not Lead. Larry David may have a shot with the resurgence of Curb Your Enthusiasm (I'm still not 100% sure what happened there...didn't that show end?), but I don't think it's much of one. Louis C.K. is a big name in the stand-up world, and his show gets a good bit of critical attention. But I think it will come down to a repeat by Jim Parsons, whose Dr. Cooper has showcased a new side of himself with his new girlfriend Amy, and Don Cheadle. Voters love a movie star respecting the medium of television by taking on a series.

BEST ACTRESS: DRAMA
I love Kathy Bates. I do. But her nomination here is somewhat laughable. The show has been canceled, critics never liked it, and though Kathy Bate's has taken part in some incredible projects during her career, Harry's Law was not one of them. Glenn Close has won twice for the same role she's nominated for tonight, but I don't think any momentum for the show has come back since the win went to someone else in that third and fourth year. People love Peggy on Mad Men but if Elisabeth Moss didn't win last year for the Suitcase episode, I don't think she's going to be winning this year. As I keep saying, I don't see Downton Abbey's move to drama series really paying off which leaves of with the ladies of The Good Wife and Homeland. While my personal preference is for Julianna Margulies, I have to give the edge to Claire Danes.

BEST ACTOR: DRAMA
John Hamm, Michael C. Hall, and Steve Buscemi are all repeat nominees who haven't won despite being lauded for their shows and performances. This isn't going to change tonight. Of all the acting nominees, Hugh Bonneville is not going to be the one to prove me wrong on my thoughts of Downton Abbey. Bryan Cranston wasn't in the race last year, which allowed Kyle Chandler to sneak in with a win. While it's not quite what happened, with Chandler's win it seems like the invincible Bryan Cranston has been brought down. While I think he's got a good shot at coming back with a fourth win, I think it's likely Damien Lewis will sneak in for the upset.

BEST COMEDY
As much as I hate to say it, I think Modern Family is going to end up taking this again. Curb Your Enthusiasm and 30 Rock  are showing their age and not in a we're sad to see something so excellent go, kind of way. The Big Bang Theory has a lot of commercial love, but most of the critical love goes to Jim Parsons and that's it. Of the two new shows, I feel Girls has the edge over Veep as the one to upset.

BEST DRAMA
As I've been saying all along, I don't feel there's any way Downton Abbey made the right decision in entering into the drama series category. Of the other five, four are repeat nominees. Game of Thrones gets limited love for their actors, but a good amount of critical love for the show itself. However, genre shows never fair well when it comes to awards. Mad Men has been the winner of this category for some time now. Boardwalk Empire had a shot at a dethroning during it's first season, but the hype has long since died down. Mad Men had a rough season this year, with no standout episodes or performances like last season. I think this is the year it'll be taken down and it'll either be Breaking Bad whose lead has been able to keep John Hamm from the prize for so long, or Homeless, the newcomer with nothing but critical praise. My money's on Homeland. Breaking Bad took a year off, and I think it's momentum died with it.

So those are my predictions for the evening. I know it's coming down to wire, and we'll see what happens.

A new direction for New Directions?

Glee is easily one of, if not my number one, favorite show on the air right now. I have no problem looking past its (multiple) flaws and failures and instead throwing myself whole-heartedly into an episode by episode deep over-analysis of its literary merits and cultural significance. I can lose myself in its superficial candy coated shenanery and revel in its excellence when it digs deeper and gets things right.

Throughout Seasons 1 and 2, Glee found a pretty solid formula: in each episode, no matter what someone was going through, all problems could be solved with a song. That formula was compounded by a core group of virtually unchangeable misfits. Sure, they swapped out the virtually non-existent Matt for the delightfully doofy Sam. And yes, Lauren (who I just loved with Puck) briefly filled the void left by Kurt until she was unceremoniously dumped from the cast. But the core eleven stayed the same. More than that, they dove deep enough into some of those characters who were originally brought in as little more than background scenery (like Santana, Brittany, and Mike) to the point where almost everyone had enough to make them a character rather than an archetype, a person in their own right that an audience would be invested in.

It wasn't until Season 3 that the problem of making every single character fleshed out and beloved was realized. In that very first episode back in May 2009, Rachel had in no uncertain terms declared herself a sophomore. This was now senior year. This was the last year these kids would all be together. How was the show supposed to continue without these characters we'd become so attached to and still remain true to its original premise? How could the show follow all these beloved characters on to their lives throughout the country without becoming so fractured that it eventually just broke? Season 3 had to recognize that they were quickly coming to a cross-road.

And so Season 3 became one of transition. But...sneakily. Yes, we still had those core 11 and they continued on with the formula that had served them so well for the past two years. But at the same time, Season 3 slowly but surely moved towards new directions beginnings.

First up, the transfer of Blaine. A smart move, he was already an established character and half of a couple with an extremely devoted (and sometimes demonic) fanbase. His addition wasn't much of a shock. He was familiar, he was comfortable. There might have been some controversy over his newly revealed age and grade level, but his presence at McKinley was to be expected. Then we welcomed Sam back from his brief departure. His financial situation was still the same, we were reminded of his relationships with both Quinn and Santana, and his declaration of love for Mercedes was a reprieve for a previously dropped storyline. Again, familiar and comfortable. And another junior.

Throughout the year, we were introduced to Sugar, Rory, and Joe, interspersed enough to make each new addition unique and to not dump too much new on the audience at one time. For me, Sugar and Joe were especially welcome additions as their characters were so vastly different from anyone else in New Directions (whereas I felt Rory was just another Finn or Sam, kind of dorky and clueless). Of the three, Joe was my favorite as he was directly responsible for two of my favorite conversations during Season 3 (the God Squad's discussion of homosexuality was hilarious, and Joe and Sam's heart to heart on how to balance a sexual relationship with Quinn and a relationship with God I found to be a very honest look at that particular struggle without being remotely mocking towards Christians or preachy towards non-Christians).

Another very smart move made in Season 3? "Hold Onto Sixteen" gave us a Sectionals competition that was completely Rachel-free. The New Directions were also missing Santana and Mercedes, their two other power house female voices (though we did see them compete as members of the Troubletones). Instead Tina sang lead, Blaine and Artie had a duet, and basically everyone had a solo somewhere. Take note of who those three featured students were. All juniors. Those three will ease us in to Life After Rachel. And tell the truth, i found it to be one of my favorite competition episodes of the whole series (with my absolute least favorite costumes, both New Directions and Troubletones). Maybe more spotlight sharing will continue into Season 4?

All of these moves during Season 3, not to mention letting the audience cling to Tina and Artie (and a lesser extent, Blaine and Sam) as juniors, and Brittany as a super-senior, eased the shock that could have been Season 4.

I have some thoughts on the first episode back: the new characters and certain people or storylines I'd like to see more fully explored, but that will have to wait until tomorrow...